Heavy snow, rain and strong winds are expected for the forecast period. Expect touchy storm slabs at elevations that receive snow. At lower elevations watch for wet snow avalanches in steep, rain-soaked terrain.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Rain changing to snow. Precipitation 4-8 mm. Ridge wind strong, south. Temperature +1. Freezing level lowering to 1500mTUESDAY: Snow. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature -2. Freezing level 1200 m.WEDNESDAY: Heavy snow. Accumulation 30-50 cm. Ridge wind strong, south. Temperature -1. Freezing level 1500 m.THURSDAY: Snow. Accumulation 25-40. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature -3. Freezing level 1200 m.
Avalanche Summary
Warm alpine temperatures on Sunday produced numerous naturally triggered loose wet and wet slab avalanches mostly in the size 1-1.5 range, and a few up to size 2 on solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures at all elevations are consolidating the snowpack and making the surface moist on all but north aspects. At elevations above approximately 1500 m precipitation from the previous storm fell as snow, while below that elevation, rain fell. Below the new storm snow, a thick crust that was buried on January 6th is now buried 30-50 cm below the surface. This crust exists up to about 2000m elevation.Beneath the January 6 crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.