More snow will increase the hazard at treeline. Tread lightly and stick to low angle terrain with no overhead hazard.
Weather Forecast
Once again forecasts are conflicting. The forecast that nailed it today says we're due for another 10cm overnight with flurries tapering by morning. Then another pulse will arrive to bring another 10cm by late day tomorrow. The wind pattern suggest strong winds above 2800m, and light winds at treeline elevations. Temps will climb tomorrow to the -10 range.
Avalanche Summary
Loose dry avalanches were very easy to trigger today. They were up to sz1, but the size of the terrain is the deciding factor for snow volume. They could be much bigger in large terrain. Alpine observations were limited. Given the amount of snow, its almost certain there was a natural cycle ongoing.
Snowpack Summary
At the moment, there is 40 of new snow from the past couple of days. So far this storm has brought 20cm of cold, low density snow at treeline elevations. Alpine elevations had some wind affect today, but treeline was surprisingly calm. A profile at the top of Tryst Chutes had the Dec 15th down 115cm, Jan 6th down105cm & the Jan 18th down 90cm. The test results were mixed. We had one test fail with sudden results from a moderate load (CTM12 SP). This was notable and concerning as if failed on the dec 15th layer. The other test had slightly better results, but still concerning. In this test, it failed with a heavier load (ECTP22 on the Jan 6th). The take home point: there is still huge uncertainty within the snowpack. A failure on any of those layers will be a big avalanche.
Problems
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.