Avalanche Forecast

Light winds, cloudy weather, a few light snow showers and cool temperatures should be seen along the west slopes on Monday.

This weather should bring a further gradually decreasing avalanche danger on Monday.

The greatest avalanche problem should be wind slab on lee slopes near and above treeline mainly NW-N-SE facing slopes. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow.

Watch for storm slab in areas that had rapidly accumulating snowfall. Storm layers that may exist above the new crust will slowly settle but could remain reactive to human triggers mainly near and above treeline.

Continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Monday.

Avoid ridges where cornices may be present and slopes below cornices. Cornices can always be sensitive to human triggers.

Weather and Snowpack

Two fair weather periods earlier this month allowed surface hoar and near surface faceting to occur. These persistent weak layers were buried intact on January 3rd and 11th.

Two heavy rain events, one about January 21st and one last Wednesday-Thursday have likely eliminated the January persistent weak layers and they have been removed as an avalanche problem from the west slope zones.

A strong occluded front with strong winds crossed the Northwest on Friday. NWAC stations along the west slopes had about 1-1.5 feet of new snow by Saturday morning. Some further light amounts of snow except for about 7 inches at Mt Baker followed at the tail end by Sunday morning

Some areas have reported a strong bond of the new snow to the new crust and some a poor bond depending on if the new snow arrived after cooling began. There have also been sensitive storm layers reported within the new snow which will take a bit of time to gradually stabilize.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Simon Trautman ventured into the white out in the Mt Baker back country Friday afternoon. New sensitive wind slabs were quickly forming on a variety of exposed aspects near treeline during heavy snowfall and very strong westerly winds. Drifts were 8-18 inches and increasing. There was an intact layer of low density stellar crystals just above the crust forming the weak layer and reactive to skis on wind loaded terrain.

New sensitive wind slabs forming in the Mt Baker back country Friday afternoon January 29th. Photo by Simon Trautman.

The Crystal pro-patrol on Saturday reported isolated 6-8 storm slab via ski cuts on varied aspects. The Alpental pro-patrol reported no significant avalanches and that new snow was not cohesive.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Saturday and noted wind transport near and above treeline, a poor bond of the new snow to the new crust and some consistent weak storm layers via shovel tilt tests.

A couple of observations are available via the NWAC Observations page. A skier triggered a 7-10 inch wind slab at Stevens Pass on a lee northeast slope Saturday. Generally stable conditions were seen at Stevens on a trip to Lake Valhalla.

Less activity is reported so far today. The Crystal Mountain pro-patrol reported a lack of wind, some unconsolidated snow and no avalanches.