Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2016–Mar 3rd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Conservative terrain selection will be essential near and above treeline as human triggered avalanches are still likely. Choose moderately angled terrain and avoid wind loaded slopes, saving those steeper lines for another day.

Detailed Forecast

A period of moderate rain and snow at rising freezing levels is expected Wednesday night along with strong S-SW  ridgetop winds. Showers should taper quickly Thursday morning. A modest cooling trend is expected by early Thursday, however, the new storm related danger will continue through Thursday due to strong southwest winds loading lee slopes during showers Wednesday night. 

Storm slab instabilities should be stabilizing, but may still be sensitive Thursday. Wind slabs will continue to build Wednesday night on lee slopes, facing generally NW-NE.  Earlier formed wind slabs may still be reactive Thursday and may add to the increasingly complex snow structure, by Thursday.

Conservative terrain selection will be essential near and above treeline to avoid wind loaded terrain and features. Choose moderately angled terrain and avoid wind loaded slopes, saving those steeper lines for another day.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

Very mild weather a week ago allowed for the formation of a strong melt-freeze crust.

The last significant snowfall in the Olympics occurred Sunday, 2/28 through early Monday when about 12 inches of snow accumulated at Hurricane Ridge accompanied by a cooling trend. Moderate S-SW winds transported snow to lee slopes Sunday and Sunday night. 

Fluctuating freezing levels Tuesday and light precipitation caused some rain or light snow at times through Tuesday with strong southerly winds.  

The mid and lower snow pack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge Friday and found mostly consolidated stable snow. N to E slopes had areas of 25-30 cm of wind transported 4F snow well bonded to 1F melt form grains in the upper snow pack. South through west slopes were melted out in some places with shallower dense stable snow in others.

No recent observations are available for the Olympics, but rainfall on Tuesday likely caused a natural avalanche cycle. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.