A stormy forecast could bring us significant snowfall through the weekend. Combined with strong winds natural and human triggered avalanches will be increasingly likely. Time to start reining it in.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Today will be unsettled with convective flurries and possible sunny breaks. The big factor today will be wind loading by gusty, W'ly winds. On Thurs, continued snowfall will bring another 10cm with moderate to strong SW winds. Another 20cm expected on Friday with SW winds to 80km/hr. Freezing levels are expected to stay below the Pass level.
Snowpack Summary
15cm of snow overnight, with S'ly winds transporting and loading lees, will have formed new slabs. The Feb 14 layer, down ~50cm, is a crust everywhere but N aspects above 1600m where pockets of surface hoar may lurk. Tests indicate that interface is bonding, but as the load above it increases it may be a perfect bed surface for avalanches to run on
Avalanche Summary
While recent human triggered avalanche activity has been limited to sluffing in steep terrain, and pockets of reactive windslab in the alpine,
there have been some close calls. In the region, cornices have been failing, providing large triggers. Generally they have not triggered avalanches, but cornices have triggered a few very large avalanches.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain