With weak overnight crust recoveries the snowpack is on a tipping point. Without solar, danger will be lower than forecast. However, strong solar is expected later this afternoon and danger will increase to Considerable quickly when the sun comes out
Summary
Weather Forecast
Today and tomorrow expect a mix of sun and cloud, with light winds and freezing levels to 1800m. Strong solar is expected in the afternoons. Overnight temps should fall to -6 and with radiant cooling expect a decent overnight recovery. On Wed, we'll see another system arrive bringing 10cm with freezing levels to 1800m. Precip will continue on Thurs
Snowpack Summary
Above ~2300m on N'ly aspects it'll feel like winter, with winter problems. On all other aspects solar and warm temps have resulted in moist snow, and the upper snowpack consists of a series of crusts. Below treeline the snowpack is becoming isothermal. We have yet to see a proper melt-freeze cycle, the surface crusts are weak and break down quickly
Avalanche Summary
On high elevation N'ly aspects (where the skiing is still good) skiers have been triggering soft slabs. Yesterday skiers triggered a size 2 windslab in Cheops N5, a N aspect @2250m. It was 20cm deep but ran 300m. Shooting cracks also had a group turn around on Ursus Major. Loose wet avalanches continue to occur daily up to size 3, running onto fans
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain