We are entering a tricky Low Probability, High Consequence cycle. The reality is that large, likely un-survivable avalanches continue to occur sporadically and are very hard to predict. Manage your exposure and be conservative in terrain selection!
Summary
Weather Forecast
This week expect unsettled weather. Today should be mainly cloudy, with isolated flurries and moderate S'ly winds. Freezing levels will rise to 1900m with an alpine high of 0'C. Overnight the flurries should accumulate to ~6cm. Wednesday will be similar with another 7cm expected and freezing levels to 1700m. On Thursday expect a few sunny breaks.
Snowpack Summary
In the last week a series of storms dumped over 150cm of heavy snow (rain below 1700m), with extreme winds (100+km/h) and warm temps. Overnight the winds shifted to N'ly, and are now reverse loading lee slopes. Below ~1700m a rain crust caps a moist and weak upper snowpack. The cornices are huge and have been failing providing a large trigger.
Avalanche Summary
The snowpack has demonstrated it's potential to produce very destructive avalanches. For example, on Sat Macdonald West Shoulder avalanched naturally ripping out mature timber and running to the valley floor. Sporadic avalanches continue to occur, like
this one yesterday in the Smart drainage, showing wide propagation and multiple step down layers.
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations