Avalanche forecast

Craigieburn Range

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

A windy storm is here for the weekend.

Rain has turned to snow (Yay) but the wind will have changed the landscape considerably.

Wind Slabs will be present at upper elevations on the Southern 1/2 aspects and lower down the slope from the ridge.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Wind Slabs are more dense and contain smaller snow particles due to being tossed around and beaten up by the wind. These Wind Slabs will be found mostly on Southeastern1/2 aspects. The stronger the wind, expect to find Wind Slabs lower down the slope from the ridge and in very sheltered zones. Cornices indicate wind direction and could possibly grow quite large with the forecast weather. Watch for denser, hollow sounding pockets of freshly deposited snow on steep slopes above 30 degrees.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    An elevated freezing level and a saturated snowpack from rain will react quickly causing roller-balling first then possible Loose Wet avalanches when the sun comes out, on solar aspects and mid to upper elevations. Be aware of this hazard if traveling uphill in these areas.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5

    Any unreactive slabs lingering in the snowpack could be triggered by intense rain. Rapid overloading of the weaker structure around could increase the likelihood of Wet Slabs in untracked terrain on most aspects at elevations above 1600m. The snowpack should drain quickly but these slide , if triggered could be large and destructive.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Nil in the past 24hrs.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Snow coverage across the forecast area is super variable. Up to 150cm in some areas down to rime covered rocks. Warm temperatures will have settled the upper pack somewhat, almost creating a spring like snowpack leaving a firm surface after overnight freezes. Around 10cm of cold dry snow fell on the 15th and 16th August. This fell onto a very firm surface. Moderate Southerly wind pushed a lot of this snow onto North and Western aspects. Soft cornices were observed on Western aspects above Tarn Basin 16/08. Cold temperatures are creating a weaker layer underneath this new snow however this is not widespread in the forecast region. This is a layer to monitor over time to see which way it will go. Around 19mm of rain to 2000m 22/08 fell then cooled early 23/08 and up to 10cm of snow has fallen to around 1200m.This all came with gale Northwest winds so will have altered the snowpack significantly.

Mountain Weather

Sunday: Scattered rain clearing in the morning to partly cloudy with isolated showers. Gale Northwest winds easing and turning Westerly in the afternoon. Freezing level 2100m lowering to 1200m in the morning.

Monday: Fine, but becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning. Strong Westerly winds turning Northwest and rising to gale in the morning. Freezing level 2000m.

Sliding Danger

Ice axe and crampons are highly recommended as rain will now turn to ice at low to mid elevations.. Ski Crampons will be required if adventuring on skis or snowboard.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain if precipitation will fall as rain or snow.
  • We are uncertain due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast weather.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered