The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today where blowing and drifting snow have created unstable conditions on upper elevation slopes that face W-N-E. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. There is also a MODERATE danger for avalanches involving the new snow on steep slopes on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. And finally, there also remains a MODERATE danger for triggering a deep avalanche, failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Though the likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche has lessened, the consequences have not, and this type of avalanche is un-survivable. The problem exists primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-E, but in some cases, it may be found on all aspects of the compass, particularly at upper elevations.
Expect to find fresh wind drifts more than a foot deep on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on slopes facing W-N-E. Cracking in the snow surface is sign of instability, and wind loaded slopes typically have a smooth, rounded appearance. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanches within the new snow will be possible today on steep slopes on all aspects. Look for a soft, cohesive slab that is poorly bonded to the underlying snow surface. A quick hand pit will tell you if one exists. Also look for blocks of snow between skin tracks.
Last week's storm produced a widespread avalanche cycle with slides breaking anywhere from 4'-12' deep on a persistent weak layer that has plagued us for much of the season. While we've experienced many active periods of natural activity since the new year began, this was the event that finally brought the house down. In total, 32" of snow with 3.6" of water weight was the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back. This was quite a thumping, and now, the big question is how long does it take for things to stabilize? Time and warm temperatures have certainly aided in the process. I would say at this point that triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche has become less likely. The problem is that signs of instability will not be presenting themselves and you may be able to put one, two, or several riders on a slope before someone finds the right trigger point. And if one is found, the avalanche will be deep, and un-survivable. The bottom line is that I'm not personally willing to take on that kind of risk.
Grand County will not be plowing today. Expect to find 4"-6" on the road.
About 8" of new snow has fallen at 10,000' in the past 24 hours. SE winds blew in the 20-25 mph range with gusts into the 40's for a good part of the day yesterday before gradually decreasing after noon. Winds are mostly light this morning but will shift to the SW and increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 today. 10, 000' temps are around 20 degrees, and we'll see a high near 30. Expect periods of patchy, blowing snow with 2"-4" possible today, and perhaps some partly sunny skies.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Winds at 11,000 feet on Abajo Peak (11,330') about 45 miles south.
National Weather Service point forecast.
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
