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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2019–Dec 18th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Avalanche danger is set to rise with heavy snowfall forecast for the South Coast. Storm slabs are expected to build quickly and become a serious hazard by the end of the day.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 10-15 cm of new snow. Strong southwest winds.

WEDNESDAY - Heavy snow, bringing 20-30 cm of new snow by end of day. New snow totals of 30-45 cm. Moderate to strong south winds. Alpine high temperature near -2 with freezing level near 1200 m, dropping to 800 m by evening as snowfall increases.

THURSDAY: Continuing flurries bringing about 10 cm of new snow, increasing and transitioning to wet flurries or rain overnight. Moderate south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -2 with freezing level to 1200 metres, increasing to 1500 metres overnight.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with easing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -1 with freezing levels falling back to 1200 metres.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't yet received reports of avalanches from the latest snowfall, but expect ongoing snowfall to steadily increase chances of storm slab avalanches as new snow increases in depth and is redistributed by wind.

If you get out into the mountains, let us know what you see by posting to the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

A layer of new snow is beginning to accumulate over the region. This time around, it is burying an array of smooth surfaces provided by the 30-50 cm of snow we received last week at treeline and in the alpine. Recent observations show the new snow has buried a weak layer of surface hoar in the North Shore mountains.

Below the new snow, last week's storm snow mainly covers bare ground, smoothing over previous ground roughness. This smoothing effect has given us more widespread planar surfaces for avalanches as new snow accumulates.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.