Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 18 – 19, 2015Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Solar radiation will rapidly and dramatically increase the avalanche danger on exposed slopes, with maximum effect latter in the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Soft slab conditions on lee alpine aspects appear to have bonded well in most locations. At 2400m a graupel layer marks the interface and may be below 65cm of wind blown snow from last week. This sheared with moderate force during field tests (18th)

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3
    Large cornices or surface avalanches are the likely trigger.

Weather Forecast

Cooling tonight with the freezing level rising to 1800m on Thursday and to 2100m on Friday. A westerly flow bringing snow flurries that may, by the weekend, provide another 20cm of snow in the alpine. Light wind will be south and westerly.

Snowpack Summary

Crusts exist up to 2200m on all aspects and extend higher on solar aspects. Above treeline  wind slabs up to 65cm thick can be found in isolated locations. Bonding is generally good, however a graupel layer has recently  been shown to shear with moderate force at the interface. Deeper weaknesses can be found near the base of the snowpack. 

Avalanche Summary

No recent activity observed. A  large cornice failure onto a easterly facing alpine start zone, known to be a frequent performer, failed to produce an avalanche.  Limited older (>48hrs) size 2 activity from treeline and above is thought to have been triggered by solar radiation.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Regions covered