Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The soft powder snow may look so inviting, but it only masks weak layers deeper in the snowpack. If you cause a sluff on a larger slope, it could act as the trigger for a deeper avalanche. Don’t get lured onto large avalanche terrain, stick to smaller, treed, and lower angled features.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Recent very cold temperatures and generally light snowfalls resulted in soft snow conditions in the Olympics. With very light winds and no significant slab structure to the surface, you’re most likely to trigger a loose avalanche on steep slopes even in the trees. Most of these sluffs should stay small, but if you travel on a larger feature, these slides could run a far distance and grow bigger. In some areas, this soft snow sits over a new crust that may only help them travel more easily. While these small loose slides are generally harmless, they could act as a trigger for the more problematic persistent weak layers lurking in the snowpack.

    (2/9/2021) Example: Dry Loose avalanches start at a point and fan out as they run downhill. Don't get knocked off your feet or pushed into a terrain trap by one of these when there is so much snow. [Photo: Zack Wentz]

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak layers don’t commonly linger in the snowpack for this length of time in the Olympics. However, observations on Thursday continue to document that a weak facet/crust combination remains intact and may produce avalanches. Don’t expect obvious signs of unstable snow. You could walk around all day and conditions may “feel” stable. If you dig in the snow, look for sugary facets above a stout mid-January crust about 2’ below the snow surface. You can use snow profiles and snowpack tests to track this layer, but don’t bet your life on a hole in the snow. The best way to avoid this sleeping beast is by staying off of large steep slopes. Instead, seek out smaller, lower angled, and treed slopes.

    (2/4/2021) Persistent slab avalanche that likely failed naturally during the storm (around 2/1). Hurricane Ridge Road in the foreground.

Avalanche Discussion

This weather pattern should continue to add a few inches of light fluffy snow at a time to the surface. Consequently, this won’t cause much change in avalanche conditions. The same weak persistent layer we’ve been talking about for two weeks continues to sit in the snowpack. Observations from Hurrican ridge on Thursday found small 1mm facets just above the mid-January crust on nearly all aspects. This layer failed easily in snowpack tests and showed the ability to propagate a failure across a slope. We have not received reports of an avalanche on this weak layer for some time, but that could change at any moment. You can help us track this persistent layer by submitting snowpack observations on our public site. 

While the Olympics are not the Cascades, this snowpack structure closely resembles other forecast zones across Washington. A very similar set-up resulted in several near-misses, avalanche involvements, and one fatality over the past week. (See the short video in the media gallery below for more information). If we can learn anything from these incidents, it’s that persistent slabs can be tricky and necessitate extra caution and patience. 

2020-21 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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