Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind-drifted slopes above treeline that face NW-N-E and human-triggered avalanches remain possible. Shallow snowpack areas with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.

The danger is LOW elsewhere but small avalanches in extreme terrain are still possible. As always, be alert for loose wet avalanches in sunny, wind-sheltered areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep remain possible on steep wind-drifted slopes. You are mostly likely to find deep drifts on NW-N-E facing slopes above treeline but some cross-loaded slopes may be found on W and SE aspects. Drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and you are likely to find them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Keep in mind that a wind drift triggered in extreme terrain can have extreme consequences. Carefully consider your terrain choices and where you may end up if a slope avalanches.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, mostly above treeline on NW-N-E aspects. The most dangerous areas are less than 5' deep and contain wind-drifted snow on top of the deeply-buried persistent weak layer. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow. Here is a classic example of where this avalanche problem currently exists:

    In this north aspect above treeline, you can expect stiff, wind-drifted snow on top of weak facets.

    Staying at lower elevations can help avoid this avalanche problem. As this snowpit suggests, areas near treeline on E aspects are gaining strength with time and warm temperatures. This pit was noticeably more difficult to dig due to the cohesive snow and relatively warm snowpack in the lower 50 cm.

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The Geyser Pass Road is a mix of mud and snow that becomes increasingly sloppy as the day heats up.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) packed into Gold Basin on Friday.

Recent Activity

On Monday, I observed a shallow wind slab in very steep terrain on a North aspect above treeline that probably ran sometime in the past few days.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 66" Wind NNW Temp 6F

Today, expect sunny skies with a high temperature near 33F (at 10,000') and Northerly winds 5-10 mph. A broad ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather and temperatures will soar 5-10 degrees above normal later in the week.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

Warm temps and a strong March sun have rapidly settled last week's snow. Today, sun-exposed slopes will contain a supportive melt-freeze crust following a strong freeze last night. Many slopes on the southerly side of the compass have produced numerous small wet-loose activity over the last few days.

Southwest winds during the height of the storm last Thursday drifted snow onto leeward slopes forming slabs 24"-30" thick near and above treeline.

Digging deeper, we still have a persistent slab problem. Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, especially at higher elevations on NW-E aspects. This weak layer is stubborn-to-trigger in areas where the snow is deeper than about 5'. However, in shallow snowpack areas, the additional weight of a rider could affect these buried weak layers. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.

A lot of terrain in this photo remains problematic. Rock bands, steep convexities, and thin snowpack areas abound. These are likely trigger points for an avalanche where even a relatively small slide could have devastating consequences. The complex terrain features are also subject to wind-loading and cross-loading can occur from a variety of wind directions.

Remember to practice good travel techniques: spacing out or crossing one at a time can help limit your exposure. Choose safe places to dig snowpits that limit your exposure to overhead hazard.

As the photo illustrates, sometimes we let our guard down, but, these best practices can save your life in the event that your stability assessment is wrong.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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