Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It's becoming harder to trigger an avalanche, but faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to persist. Large and destructive human-triggered persistent slab avalanches remain possible today at all elevations. New snow and strong winds will continue to load slopes and stiffen slabs on North through East aspects and cross-loaded terrain.  Avoid steep wind drifted slopes giving avalanche paths wide berths as you still may be able to trigger an avalanche well above you.  Likely trigger points near rock outcrops and on the margins of the slab are places you're most likely to impact weak layers triggering an avalanche.     

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers continue to persist in the snowpack from faceted crusts to basal facets closer to the ground.  In shallower snowpacks (less than 2 m) these weak layers have been slow to heal and strengthen.  Wind drifted and loaded slopes near and above treeline on North through East will be most suspect and where avalanches will be bigger.  Below treeline, the snowpack continues to be weak and shallow with settling stiffening slabs resting over facets and depth hoar. Triggering an avalanche at this elevation band would still have high consequences if it swept you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  

    Avoid likely trigger points, near rock outcrops, steep convex rolls and on the margins of the slab. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths and avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    Stronger slabs from previous storms rest on top of faceted weak layers that continue to persist deeper down in the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

2 to 3 inches of low-density snow fell yesterday, which should easily be transported by the moderate to strong westerly winds last night into the day today.  You may find isolated wind slabs forming on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain at higher elevations. Avoid slopes where you find more than 6 inches of wind drifted snow as a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

It's been close to a week since we've had natural avalanches following last week's storms and wind event.  It's become harder to trigger an avalanche over the last several days, but faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to linger.  In long column tests, these weak layers near the ground continue to fail with moderate to hard force with the ability to propagate across the column.  It's this lower likelihood but high consequence scenario that should give you pause.  If you were to trigger a persistent slab avalanche it has the potential to be large and destructive taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

The snowpack isn't always giving us immediate feedback like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks until it's too late. Don't get lured into thinking previous tracks on a slope makes it safe.  It may just take one person to hit the wrong place where the slab is thinner to get the slope to avalanche.  Digging snowpits are great, but may give you false security if you dig in the wrong spot.  There is a lot of uncertainty out there as well as a high level of variability from slope to slope.  If you're not a fan of these tricky conditions, you can always stick to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain as the skiing and riding have greatly improved with the little bit of snow we received.  

 

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