Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It remains possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on steep northwest through east facing terrain above treeline and isolated wind-exposed slopes near treeline. Weak faceted snow beneath stiff cohesive slabs has been slow to heal. Address each slope individually at this elevation, dig to assess if buried hard slabs are present before committing to skiing or riding a particular slope. Below and near treeline the snowpack is mainly cohesionless faceted snow where the biggest hazard continues to be natural obstacles. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Our snowpack structure is incredibly poor on northwest through east slopes above treeline and isolated open wind-exposed slopes near treeline. On these slopes, we harbor buried hard slabs from Dec 23 that rest over incredibly weak faceted snow. We have not yet observed any notable healing occurring in this persistent weak layer. Long column tests continue to produce propagating results from easy to moderate force. Being so far removed from our last loading event on Dec 29, obvious signs of instability like recent avalanches, collapsing and shooting cracks will not be good tools to assess if this snowpack structure exists on any given slope. 

    The bottom line here is that if you're on northwest through east facing terrain above treeline you're likely dancing on hard slabs with very weak faceted snow beneath. We continue to live in the world of low likelihood where it may not be the first, second or fifth person on the slope to get it to fail, but consequences still remain high if you get one of these hard slabs to release.

    Weak facets below a hard slab that formed in December continues to remain a concern on NW through E aspects above treeline.

Avalanche Discussion

Moderate to strong NW winds have started to change the snow surface above treeline.  These winds have easily been able to strip the weak near-surface facets that have formed over the last couple of weeks either eroding or scouring slopes or creating firm supportable to breakable crusts.  Skiing and riding conditions are challenging and uninspiring right now to say the least as we remain in the doldrums of prolonged high-pressure and now the return of wind.     

If you are getting out it's a dramatically different snowpack structure from below to above treeline.  Below treeline, and in many places near treeline, our snowpack is entirely faceted and shallow with lots of ground hazards. Stepping out of your skis in this terrain will result in immediately plummeting to the ground and it's becoming increasingly difficult even to stay afloat on skis right now. There is certainly no shortage of weak snow to be found here, but what we lack at these elevations is any semblance of a slab. However once buried by a storm, these weak layers will become a concern down the road. Right now due to the cohesion-less nature of the snow, you may be able to produce small loose dry snow avalanches in steep terrain features that could sweep you or your partner off your feet.

Above treeline and open exposed slopes near treeline is where you're most likely to find stiff cohesive slabs over weak fragile facets.  These stiff slabs formed from previous wind events and may not be right on the surface. At this point, it probably sounds like a broken record with all this talk over the last several weeks about the same persistent slab problem.  It really speaks to how weak and fragile the weak layers in the snowpack are right now and maybe getting weaker. Results in extended column tests over the last several days are going in the wrong direction as we are starting to get them to fail with easy force or just on isolation. The weak layer of concern is found just below these stiff slabs, but several other faceted weak layers exist below that layer.    Although triggering an avalanche is difficult right now, it may just take the right place or right time, where a hard slab could break well above or around you with very serious consequences.  Don't let your guard down as we continue to deal with this troublesome snowpack structure. 

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