Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and another night with no refreeze will keep the avalanche danger at considerable today due to wet snow avalanches.  Most of the avalanche activity will be smaller loose wet snow avalanches in the upper portions of the snowpack. As we approach several days above freezing the concern for larger wet slab avalanches is growing as water is percolating deeper down in the snowpack and lubricating facets near crusts or depth hoar near the ground.  Pay attention to slopes that are in the direct sunlight and where you start to punch in past your boot tops in wet snow.  Natural wet snow avalanches are possible and human-triggered avalanches are likely today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Warm temperatures and the intense sun this time of year will quickly make the snow surface wet.  Like clockwork, as the sun rises east-facing slopes will heat up first, transitioning to the south and finally west aspects.  North facing slopes below treeline should also feel the impacts of warm temperatures today.  Watch out for wet manky snow that is above your boot-top or slopes that are directly in the sun as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and the concern for wet snow avalanches is increasing. Loose wet snow avalanches typically start a small point release in steeper terrain underneath rocks that can quickly fan out entraining more snow making it difficult to get out of the way.  If you notice the snow getting wet, either head to a shadier aspect or it may be time to call it a day. This type of avalanche may happen naturally or be human-triggered today.

     

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With several days with above freezing temperatures without a solid refreeze, the concern for deeper wet slab avalanches is growing.  As water percolates deeper down into the snowpack it can pool and lubricate on buried faceted crusts. In shallower snowpacks, especially below treeline, depth hoar and facets near the ground are becoming wet as free water makes its way further down into the snowpack. Unlike dry snow, if you dig a quick pit, you'll be able to wring water out of these wet or moist facets.  Avoid steep slopes where you are punching in past your boot tops.  These types of avalanches can be difficult to predict and often times are very destructive.  The potential is there for wet slab avalanches to fail on depth hoar near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

It was another night with above freezing temperatures and near record-setting high temps forecasted during the day. Most mid and lower elevations have seen above freezing temperatures now for 72 hours and upper elevations have seen temperatures climb into the 40's during the day.  The snow today will quickly become wet and manky by mid-morning, so if you are trying to chase spring corn snow, you'll want to get an early start and finish up quickly.

Wet slabs are becoming a bigger concern without the presence of a solid refreeze in several days. This allows water to percolate deeper down into the snowpack and creating wet or moist faceted snow closer to the ground with stronger slabs on top.  This is a difficult problem to identify in the field and the consequences can be severe, as wet slabs could fail all the way to the ground today.  

Be aware of overhanging cornices that are warming up and softening with this warm weather.  Cornices may break back further than expected on ridgelines or may release naturally that can act as a big trigger on the slopes below.  Avoid traveling on steep slopes directly below cornices this weekend.  

If you're heading to higher elevation north-facing slopes to avoid the wet snow concerns, continue to be aware of shallow snowpacks (less than 150 cm) where you're more likely to impact facets and depth hoar that continues to linger near the ground.  There is still a remote chance that you could find the right slab/weak layer combination to produce a large persistent slab avalanche in this terrain.    

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