In areas were the snow structure is poor strong winds and new snow are likely to create very dangerous conditions. In these areas large, destructive avalanches are likely. Un-survivable deep slab avalanches are expected to release naturally and be easily triggered by humans. The general avalanche hazard is expected to increase to high at the upper elevations and be considerable below an elevation of 8,000 feet. There was an avalanche fatality on Togwotee Pass on February 18 and a serious avalanche accident on Mt. Leidy three days ago. Large avalanches were remotely triggered by snowmobilers in the Mt. Leidy area two days ago. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended during periods of high hazard.
Deep slab avalanches are a serious threat on a variety of aspects. These destructive avalanches could be 4 to 8 feet deep and run long distances above an elevation of 8,000 feet and could be 2 to 4 feet deep below that elevation. If you trigger one of these destructive slides, you will most likely not survive. Previous tracks on a slope should NOT be interpreted as a sign of stability.
Increasing southwest to west winds throughout the day will be forming new wind slabs on leeward aspects. These surface slabs could be 1 to 3 feet deep and be easily triggered by the weight of a person. These wind slab avalanches could step down and trigger a much larger deep persistent slab avalanche.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Snow will increase overnight and continue through the day and into the next night. Favored areas may get six inches by daybreak. Snowfall totals of 8 to 16 inches at the higher elevations and 4 to 6 inches at the lower elevations are likely by Saturday morning. Temperatures will be in the single digits and teens in the mountains and in the teens and 20’s at the lower elevations. West-southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 with gusts over 40 miles per hour and may create extensive areas of blowing snow. Strong winds and new snow will form new wind slabs on leeward aspects that will gain depth and volume as this storm progresses. These slabs are likely to be easily triggered by skiers and riders and will be large enough to bury or kill a person. In areas were the snow structure is poor this snow and wind is likely to create very dangerous conditions. In these areas large, destructive avalanches are likely. These un-survivable deep slab avalanches are expected to be four to eight feet deep. The general avalanche hazard is expected to increase to high. In the past 8 days there has been an avalanche fatality in each of our three forecast zones. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended during periods of high avalanche hazard. Please be careful. Your terrain decisions could end your life.
