Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Low danger doesn't mean no danger. You could trigger small wet loose avalanches on steep slopes later in the day. When you begin to punch into wet snow surfaces, or if you notice fresh rollerball activity then it's time to move away from steeper and more consequential terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As the daytime warms up and the sun melts surface crusts, look for indicators of wet activity such as moist surface snow, rollerballs, and recent fan-shaped avalanches. Once you notice these, or if you begin to sink into wet snow deeper than your boot top, its time move off of steep slopes. You may be more likely to run into wet avalanches on steep east aspects, along with south to west-facing slopes later in the day. The potential size of loose wet slides will increase on sustained, very steep slopes where you find more recent snow overlying a crust. While these small avalanches are fairly predictable, they could be dangerous in terrain traps such as tree strainers and cliffs.

    You may be less likely to trigger wet loose avalanches above treeline with cooler temperatures and a breeze. However, be sure to give cornices plenty of room when traveling on ridges and stay out from underneath them. 

    (3/31/2021) A wet loose avalanche (D1.5) off northeast facing terrain near treeline above Tumwater Canyon.

Avalanche Discussion

Slopes that face directly north above 5,000ft may still hold dry snow, but the sun has formed crusts of various thicknesses on all other aspects. How snow surfaces hold up on Saturday will depend on how solid the overnight freeze is, and how thick the cloud cover is. You can easily check to see how thick surface crusts are with a hand or ski pole. In any case, sunshine may begin to melt surfaces as the daytime warms up. On Wednesday and Thursday the sun was out and temperatures were very warm. Small loose wet avalanches ran on slopes from northeast to south to west facing aspects. The last storm finished up on Monday, and left around a foot of snow right near the crest, but only about half of that for and areas further east such as the Wenatchee Mountains.

The lower snowpack is generally well settled, although a persistent weak layer from mid-January created prolonged instabilities and avalanches through February. Although we don't have any observations of avalanches on this layer since March 1, it is worth keeping on your mind as we transition into spring. This persistent weak layer can still be found about 2-6 feet below the surface throughout most of the zone, and takes the form of weaker facets above and/or below a crust. The most suspect areas for any deep persistent slabs at this point would be unsupported, and shallow and rocky slopes.

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