Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard in the West Central Mountains is Considerable today. Natural Avalanches are possible, and human triggered avalanches are likely.  Avalanche conditions will become more dangerous through the day as new snow and gusty 30 MPH Southwest winds will be building new wind slabs...Persistent slabs up to 2.5 feet deep formed last week over weak layers and are getting hard to trigger, but may have dire consequences if you do trigger them.. Gusty winds over the last 48 hours have already created slabs on leeward terrain, and some failed naturally Sunday-Monday.

Avoid steep, wind loaded, exposed, consequential terrain, and utilize safe travel protocols.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have been gusting out of the South over the last 2 days, and have created slabs in leeward terrain. The weather forecast is calling for more snow and gusty winds into the 30 MPH range. Some natural wind slab avalanches were observed Monday Feb 1st . Wind slabs have formed over weaker snow, and may be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. 

    Terrain can influence wind loading, and form slabs in strange places contrary to where you might think...Watch for stiff drifts and wind slabs on leeward terrain even well below the ridgetops. Avoid natural terrain traps like gullies.  Pay attention to the consistency and density of the snow under your skis, sled, or moto while you travel through different terrain.  A sudden change in the surface of the snow is a good indicator of wind slab formation.

      

     

    Strong gusts out of the Southwest transporting snow on Jug Mountain on Monday February 1st

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The mountains  received over 2 feet of new snow this past week.  We now have a soft slab about 2-2.5 feet deep that formed over weak snow, which was the result of natural avalanches and human-triggered avalanches Thursday and Friday... This soft slab is resting on a variety of bed surfaces that the new snow is bonding to better in some areas than others. 

    Triggering this slab is getting harder as it has gained some strength over the last few days...the poor structure is driving conservative terrain choices for seasoned locals and professionals. While triggering is getting mre difficult, the consequences of triggering a persistent slab may be unsurvuvable.

    Collapsing,  whumping and cracking have been very widespread Friday and Saturday.  Slopes over 35 degrees should be avoided.  Buried surface hoar can be unpredictable, and failover large areas very quickly before you can react.  More snow over the next couple days will add stess to the snowpack.

    Safe travel and mellow terrain choices are cheap insurance right now. 

    Skier triggered avalanche on buried surface hoar Friday (1/29/2021) at Lick Cr Summit.

Avalanche Discussion

There are multiple buried weak layers and crust/facet combinations in the upper portion of our snowpack right now. The addition of new snow and windblown snow on these layers is providing in your face warnings to avoid steep terrain.  Don't ignore red flags like cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches in any terrain right now.  Stick to lower angle slopes in the backcountry and do not travel without avalanche rescue gear and solid partners utilizing safe travel protocols.  

If you see or trigger avalanche activity, please take the time to snap a picture and note the approximate elevation and aspect, you can submit an observation on our website. Getting your info helps forecasters and other users get a better picture of the conditions throughout our mountains.

*Also, Please be mindful of other users, and where you are at. There are closures for motorized travel in and around the local ski areas, Granite Mtn, and other areas throughout our region.

***Check out the Winter Travel Map to find out where you can shred on your sled or moto.