Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions are developing today, with the avalanche danger continuing to rise into the weekend. Several large natural avalanches were observed yesterday. This avalanche on Gothic Mountain and this avalanche on Sckuylkill Ridge, both started as smaller wind slabs near ridgelines, then they further stepped down into larger persistent slab avalanches as they ran down to lower valley elevations. Continued natural avalanches are likely to occur on wind-loaded terrain above treeline, and may possibly release at lower elevations. These avalanches could run far into their avalanche path and impact lower angled terrain below. Travel in or below wind-loaded avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Since last Friday, Nearly a hundred persistent slab avalanches up to several feet thick and hundreds of feet wide, have been triggered or run naturally. These avalanches have released on persistent weak layers in the middle and at the bottom of the snowpack. Crown heights have averaged 2 to 4 feet tall. The eastern half of the compass has seen the most avalanche activity, with winds further loading those slopes. Natural avalanches are becoming likely on those wind-loaded slopes, while human triggering also remains likely around much of the compass. 

    Recent natural persistent slab on Schuylkill Ridge. Note the wide propagation and long running debris.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Through the latter part of this week, westerly winds have been building slabs and adding load to the lee sides of ridgelines at both near and above treeline elevations. This wind-loading is driving the start of today's natural avalanche cycle. Several large wind slabs released naturally on Thursday, and a couple of those stepped down into deeper persistent slab avalanches. Simple avoidance of wind-loaded terrain is the best travel advice for this avalanche problem.

    2/11, A wind-loaded slab released at the top of this avalanche path, then further pulled out larger and deeper persistent slab avalanches at lower elevations.

Avalanche Discussion

Friday's storm is just getting going this morning with only an inch or two of snow accumulating overnight. While upper elevation westerly winds continue to crank and further add load onto the lee sides of ridgelines. The Cinnamon and Scarps Ridge Weather Stations at 12,000ft, have been recording winds averaging in the 20's to 30's and gusts in the 30's to 50's for a few days now. New snow has been steadily accumulating since Tuesday. We haven't seen a big hit of new snow to drive a natural avalanche cycle, instead, we have just seen that snow continue to add fule for wind-loading. This wind-loaded terrain is where the action is developing first. Yesterday saw several natural avalanches from wind-loading, and now today's storm is expected to turn this avalanche activity up another notch. 

Below treeline wind-sheltered areas will be slower to develop natural avalanche activity. Most recently these areas have shown a more stubborn avalanche problem. That decreased sensitivity for human triggering a persistent slab below treeline allowed the danger at that elevation to drop to MODERATE yesterday. The danger rating at that elevation has now climbed back to CONSIDERABLE as today's storm starts adding additional load. People are going to get out and enjoy the snow today, these lower elevation slopes that are also sheltered from the wind will have lower avalanche risk when compared to wind-loaded terrain. Keep an eye out for shallow storm slabs developing at the end of the day, and consider traveling on lower consequence terrain features in case you get surprised by the large persistent slab avalanche problem.

This video highlights the natural avalanche cycle from last weekend and begins to set the stage for what we have in store for this coming weekend. 

Regions covered