Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Highlights

A buried weak layer creates the potential for slab avalanches in steep terrain today. Recently wind loaded slopes have added a load to that layer that has proven to crack and fail by human triggering in isolated areas. While the threat of natural avalanches has passed, a skier or rider could find the weak spot in the slab and cause a larger than expected avalanche. Slab thickness could be five feet thick and possibly thicker in heavily loaded slopes such as beneath cliffs or ridge tops. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully to identify this hazard before committing to a slope. Lower elevations below 8,500' have less snow coverage making it unlikely to trigger an avalanche. Plenty of safe skiing and riding exists on lower angled slopes in wind sheltered areas where no slab exists over the buried weak layer.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Buried, weak faceted snow remains a layer of concern in terrain above 8500 feet. This avalanche type could be triggered from a connected slope near a steeper slope or from below. A very large avalanche could occur on this problem layer especially where a thick slabs of wind drifted snow lie on top. A slab avalanche with a crown up approximately eight feet thick was reported on Monday on a heavily wind loaded slope west of the Tetons. A smaller, remotely triggered but still potentially dangerous avalanche of this type were reported yesterday at the headwaters of Maverick Creek.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong wind during the recent period of snowfall has drifted snow onto wind sheltered slopes and ridgetops. Signs of wind loading include cornices, wind textured surfaces and stiffer surface snow underfoot. These slabs are likely to be stubborn in most areas and anywhere between six inches and three feet thick.

Avalanche Discussion

( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Arctic air will remain in place tonight and into tomorrow. Expect mountain lows tonight between -10 and -15 and rising to the negative single digits tomorrow. Ridge top winds will be in the 10-15 mph range with a trace to an inch of snow falling overnight and another inch or two falling late in the day tomorrow.As recent wind slabs and storm snow settles and bonds, the risk of natural avalanches continues to decline. Unfortunately, the recent loading increased the strain on the weak layer associated with the Dec 5 crust. This persistent slab remains a real concern. Where our two avalanche problem types converge is where you could trigger the largest avalanche with slab thicknesses five or more feet thick in the Tetons and possibly Grey’s River area, with smaller slabs up to 3 feet possible at Togwotee. Steep slopes and areas above 8,500’ where this layer is especially weak or overloaded will continue to hold the potential for these large avalanches that will be easily capable of burying a person. The avalanche danger will be Moderate at middle and upper elevations of all zones tomorrow but you will need to evaluate the snowpack and terrain carefully before committing to a slope.

Regions covered