Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Yesterday, a skier triggered and was briefly caught in a Wet Slab avalanche on a southeast aspect near treeline on Mt. Emmons.  With the warmest temperatures of the season occurring today you should expect wet snow avalanche problems to develop;  sunny slopes will commonly present wet loose avalanche conditions while some may contain a more concerning Wet Slab problem.  If you find more than a few inches of wet snow at the surface you are likely too late to descend terrain without wet avalanche activity.  Although it is hard to trigger a slab avalanche on shaded slopes, continue to avoid shallow or rocky slopes where you are more likely to find a trigger point.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As the strong March sun makes its rounds, wet loose avalanches will become problematic. Beginning with east-facing slopes in the morning, moving onto south, and eventually west-facing slopes this afternoon. Keep an eye on snow surfaces, once the surface snow has become wet you will be able to human trigger this avalanche problem on steep slopes. Natural avalanche activity is possible throughout the day and these will be another clear sign for you to head to lower angled or colder slopes. On Thursday, a skier was pushed off their feet by a small loose wet avalanche. A small avalanche could easily push you into more hazardous terrain or become large in size as they accumulate mass running down big terrain.  

    Wet loose avalanches typically start from a point and grow in size as they descend through the terrain.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Saturday, 3/6, a skier triggered and was briefly carried in a Wet Slab avalanche in Coon Basin on Mount Emmons.  This occurred on a southeast slope near treeline with a shallow snowpack due to previous avalanche activity.  Recent warm temperatures and strong solar radiation are pumping meltwater into the snowpack and saturating weak layers deeper in the snowpack.  High temperatures today will be 10 or more degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.  Predicting which slopes present a Wet Slab problem versus a Wet Loose problem can be challenging.  If you find more than just a few inches of wet surface snow your suspicions should increase.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Hard slab avalanches breaking 2 to 6 feet deep on old weak snow are creating a low probability but high consequence situation. A triggered avalanche on a high elevation, leeward slope, could be deep and unsurvivable. While in wind-sheltered or windward terrain, the slabs are still sizable and would be large enough to bury you. If you choose to ride in avalanche terrain you may be able to reduce your chance of human triggering by seeking out planar or concave slopes with deep, uniform snow coverage, free of shallow spots, rock bands, and variability from winds. Regroup in safe zones that are clear of unusually wide and long-running avalanches.  

    Most of the avalanches this month have released on weak layers near the ground. The slabs are thick and can propagate surprisingly wide distances across terrain features that might normally feel safe.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's primary concern will be wet snow avalanche problems.  Temperatures will climb 10 degrees or more above seasonal norms for many locations.  The warm weather and strong solar radiation from the March sun will wet surface snow on slopes with sunny exposure.  As the day progresses and temps warm, the potential for human-triggered Wet Loose and Wet Slab avalanches will increase.  Your best defense for recreating on steep sunny slopes will be to start earlier in the day, and time your descent with just enough softening of surface crusts for enjoyable turns.  The warming will follow the sun around the compass starting with easterly slopes, then moving to the south, and finally to westerly slopes.  Finding more than a few inches of wet surface snow is a clear sign that you are too late to descend without an increased likelihood of triggering an avalanche.  Deciding which slopes are a Wet Loose problem versus a Wet Slab problem can be tricky.  Predicting Wet Slab avalanches is often a guessing game.  The most concerning terrain for Wet Slabs will be sunny terrain with a shallow snowpack(keep in mind previous avalanche activity as a reason for shallower than anticipated snowpack) with rocks, cliffs, or bushes nearby that help introduce increased meltwater into the snowpack, but with the unusually warm weather, there could be a few isolated surprise avalanches.  Timing is everything with wet avalanche problems and if you suspect you are too late due to surface wetness, it is best to defer to low angled terrain or move to a colder aspect with less warming.  Take a look at this observation to see some details about yesterday's close call with a Wet Slab avalanche.  

On the north half of the compass, the threat of large, triggered avalanches lingers.  Weak snow near the ground remains a low likelihood yet high consequence problem.  You can reduce your chances of triggering a deep avalanche failing near the ground by choosing slopes with uniform, deep snow coverage.  Avoid slopes that are rocky and shallow where you have an increased chance of finding a trigger point.

 

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