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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2018–Dec 18th, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

The storms keep coming. Monday night into Tuesday could bring another 30+ cm combined with strong winds. As a result, the avalanche danger will remain elevated.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Snow, accumulation 15-25cm. Alpine temperature -4. Moderate to strong south wind. Freezing level 1200m. TUESDAY: Snow, accumulation 5-15cm. Alpine temperature -2. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1400m. WEDNESDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5cm. Alpine temperature -2. Light west wind. Freezing level 1300m. THURSDAY: Snow, accumulation 20-30cm. Alpine temperature -1. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports indicate numerous explosives controlled storm slab avalanches size1.5-2 at tree line and in the alpine on Monday. A few of these have have been suspected to be running on a layer of facets buried up to metre deep. Expect the likelihood of natural and human triggered storm snow avalanches to increase as we get another storm Monday night through Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 2 m of snow has accumulated over the past week. We are in the midst of another series of storms impacting the region, which will bring another round of snow and strong to extreme southerly winds.A weak layer of facets and surface hoar lies below all the recent storm snow. Initially, avalanches were reported to be running on this layer. However, recent avalanche activity is running in the storm snow above this layer. Still, the presence of this layer shouldn't be completely discarded, since it could potentially increase expected avalanche size with a large trigger like a cornice collapse.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.