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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2018–Dec 11th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Expect sluffing in steep terrain with last nights 5-10cm of new snow burying a surface hoar / sun crust layer.Winds will increase over the day with the potential to build new wind slabs.

Weather Forecast

Overcast with isolated flurries for the day and an alpine high of -6. Winds will gradually increase over the day reaching 20-35km/hr from the Southwest. Our region is lined up for two strong winter storms, the first arriving on Tuesday with 25cm forecasted and another 20-30cm on Thursday. Winds will be strong throughout the week.

Snowpack Summary

8cm of new snow overnight now buries the Dec 9 surface hoar which was found up to 10mm in sheltered areas.  The November 21st surface hoar is down 30-45cm and is most likely to be triggered on steep solar aspects, where it overlies a crust. The height of snow at Mt Fidelity is below average for this time of year; see the graph for more info.

Avalanche Summary

All is quiet on the avalanche front this past week, with no reports of new avalanches in the past 5 days. Groups have been riding steep, unsupported features on many aspects and only seeing minor surface sluffing... This will change with the incoming storm systems

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.