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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2018–Dec 9th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Got a headlamp? It's nearly dark at 4pm so get back to the trailhead before you have to use it! Many early season hazards exist at all elevations.

Weather Forecast

The general trend is for increasing cloud, culminating in a weak series of storms the next few days. Saturday will bring a mix of sun and cloud, alpine temp's of -7*C, and light SW winds. For Sunday and Monday, scattered flurries should bring 5-15cm of snow. Winds will pick up to moderate from the SW and freezing levels will rise to 1200m.

Snowpack Summary

The height of snow at Mt Fidelity is just below average for this time of year; see the graphs that are hyper linked here for more info. The main layer of concern is the November 21st surface hoar, which is buried beneath 25 to 40cm of storm snow. This layer is most likely to be triggered on steep solar aspects, where it overlies a crust.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanches have been observed in the highway corridor or reported from the backcountry in the last four days. Groups have been riding steep, unsupported features on many aspects and only seeing minor surface sluffing.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.