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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2019–Mar 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Even if the skies are cloudy you should avoid slopes that have wet and mushy snow. Check out this LINK to see how easy it is to trigger a loose wet avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool, at least through Wednesday morning.SATURDAY NIGHT: Light variable wind, freezing level around 1200 m, no significant precipitation expected. SUNDAY: Scattered cloud cover in the morning building to overcast by sundown, light variable wind, freezing level rising to around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light to moderate southerly wind, freezing level holding around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 1200 m Monday night with 1 to 6 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower elevations and should produce a trace to 5 cm of snow above treeline, stay tuned for more details.TUESDAY: Overcast, moderate west wind, freezing level around 1200 m, 5 to 10 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

In the far north of the region on Friday loose wet avalanche activity up to size 3 was reported on solar aspects. Sporadic natural slab avalanches were also reported in the alpine and treeline, but no activity was reported from north aspects. No new activity was reported from the central or southern portions of the region.On Wednesday, natural loose wet avalanche activity continued up to size 3 on SE-SW aspects in the northern parts of the region. In the South, a few natural loose wet avalanches were reported up to size 2 from steep solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are variable. On higher North aspects (above 1700 m) you may find some dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some isolated wind slabs. On solar aspects (South and West) at treeline and in the alpine the upper 10-30 cm will likely sport a firm crust with cooling temperatures. Below treeline the snow could remain moist or wet if it doesn't re-freeze. Below the melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and the wintery snow on the polar aspects down 40-60 cm sits the February facet interface. This interface may be reactive on higher North aspects where a firm surface crust doesn't exist. The snowpack has gone through a lot of change with the hot and sunny weather. We're expecting a good overnight refreeze on Saturday night and increasing cloud cover Sunday which should allow the upper snowpack to solidify.`

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.