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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2019–Mar 1st, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Persistent slab avalanche problems are tricky to manage. They tend to linger, waiting for a trigger. Check out the Forecasters' BLOG for further details about the conditions in the South Coast region.

Confidence

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures near -2 and ridgetop winds light from the northwest. Freezing levels near 700 m.SATURDAY/ SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures near -4 and ridgetop winds light to moderate from the northeast. Freezing levels 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday no new avalanches were reported. On February 18th a fatal avalanche occurred on a steep feature at treeline elevation in the Mount Seymour backcountry (see here for incident report).

Snowpack Summary

The new snow will likely have a poor bond to the older snow surfaces. In exposed areas the upper snowpack has been highly wind affected and stiff supportive wind slabs exist. In sheltered areas you can still find pockets of low density snow. Below the surface a crust/ graupel layer can be found down 50 cm and is starting to slowly bond to the upper snowpack. The deeper interface down 80-120 cm is a crust/ facet combination and still producing moderate sudden collapse snowpack test results. The bond of the upper snowpack on this layer is weaker on north aspects and triggering this interface with the weight of a person is possible at treeline.The reactivity of this layer appears to be worse in the North Shore Mountains. The problem is not typical for the region and we expect this persistent layer to linger into the future. This deeper weak layer has produced large natural and human-triggered avalanches over the past week. The lower snowpack is settled and strong.Please check out these MIN reports for more snowpack information:Diggin' Mt. SeymourAST Mt Seymour

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.