Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 15th, 2015 8:02AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A heavy snowfall warning has been issued for the region. If the forecast comes true, danger levels will rise to HIGH due to recent storm slab development. Keep an eye on localized snowfall amounts.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A heavy snowfall warning is in effect for the region and a further 30cm of snow is possible by late Monday morning. Temperatures will be near -5 celsius at ridgetop on Monday with a clearing trend towards the end of the day. Winds are expected to be light and variable.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing was observed or reported today, but observations were very limited due to poor visibility. It is expected that a natural avalanche cycle will begin late Sunday or early Monday in the alpine and at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of snow has fallen at treeline over the past 36hrs. This snow has now buried crusts on steep solar aspects at all elevations. On Saturday strong SW winds formed thin storm slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain in alpine and treeline areas, but further storm slab development slowed down on Sunday. Much of the precipitation fell as rain at lower elevations on Saturday and temperatures dropped overnight. A new rain crust now exists at lower elevations with a small amount of new snow sitting on top.

Problems

Storm Slabs

By Monday morning storm snow totals could reach 45cm. If this occurs slabs will be very sensitive to triggering especially where they overlie previously formed crusts (such as solar aspects).

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal weak layers remain a concern and could "wake up" with the new load of snow forecast for Sunday night. Shallow snowpack areas are particularly concerning in this respect.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Dry

Sluffing can be expected in steep terrain as heavy snowfalls continue.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid travelling under cliffs that are exposed to sluffing from above.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 16th, 2015 2:00PM