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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 4th, 2013–Jan 5th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Temps are forecast to warm up on Saturday so watch for decreases in stability on steep solar aspects.  Lots of tracks out there right now, dont get "pushed" into an area you wouldnt normally go to due to high risk for a fresh line. 

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Unfortunately, no new snow is in the forecast for the next few days.  Temperatures are expected to increase into the single digits so be prepared for some possible decreases in stability on steep solar aspects when these temperatures rise.  Moderate to strong NW winds will continue throughout the weekend.  There is a CHANCE for some precipitation to finally hit the region on Monday but Monday is still a long ways away.  Time to call in a favour or two with Ular.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was observed.

Snowpack Summary

1-3cm of HN24.  Widespread surface hoar growth below 2100m up to sz 10mm.  Upper snowpack continues to facet under the influence of cold temperatures.  Mid-pack still supportive and the 1106 rain crust (rc) is still evident at the base of the snowpack but unreactive in snowpack tests.  Height of snow is on average 140-160cm at treeline.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in extreme terrain.  This is of particular concern to ice climbers.
Finish ice climbs early in the day before the temperature rises.>The volume of sluffing could knock you over; choose your climb carefully and belay when exposed.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Pockets of stiff windslabs are being found in Alpine terrain and isolated areas at treeline.  Avoid steep unsupported features.
Avoid unsupported slopes.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Its easy to forget about this problem but don't forget about it just yet.  This basal crust will be the likely layer for some large avalanches.  It may be easier to trigger from thin or shallow snow pack areas so heads up in this type of terrain.
Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6