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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2022–Jan 7th, 2022
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is expected Friday, and all that low density snow we've been enjoying lately is now available for entrainment. Expect avalanches to run far and fast, picking up mass as they go.

Weather Forecast

A Pacific system hitting the South Coast is driving a juicy SW flow.

Tonight: Snow (15cm). Alpine Low -13*C Moderate South ridge wind.

Friday: Snow (15cm). Alpine High -5*C. Mod gusting strong S-SW wind.

Saturday: Flurries (5cm). Low -16*C, High -7*C. Strong SW wind.

Sunday: Flurries (5cm), Sunny periods in the PM. Low -7*C, High -6*C. Strong W wind.

Snowpack Summary

15cm at publishing time, with up to 45cm of fresh storm snow forecast by Friday evening. The new snow, with warming temps and strong gusty wind, will build fresh slabs quickly over the cold snow below. The Dec 1 crust (now buried 90-150cm), has not been reactive lately despite having faceted snow above and below it (especially in shallow areas).

Avalanche Summary

Moderate snowfall, warming temps and strong winds are expected to produce natural avalanche activity overnight and through out the day Friday.

No new avalanches were observed (visibility was poor) or detected on Thursday.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The new storm snow overlies a previous cold and facetted upper snowpack. Expect avalanche activity to peak on Friday.

  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3.5

Loose Dry

Expect loose snow avalanches in steep sheltered terrain. With lots of unsettled snow in the upper snowpack these could entrain significant mass.

  • Use safe ski cutting techniques to enter your line.
  • Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5