Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 6th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.
jonas hoke,
A natural avalanche cycle is expected Friday, and all that low density snow we've been enjoying lately is now available for entrainment. Expect avalanches to run far and fast, picking up mass as they go.
Summary
Weather Forecast
A Pacific system hitting the South Coast is driving a juicy SW flow.
Tonight: Snow (15cm). Alpine Low -13*C Moderate South ridge wind.
Friday: Snow (15cm). Alpine High -5*C. Mod gusting strong S-SW wind.
Saturday: Flurries (5cm). Low -16*C, High -7*C. Strong SW wind.
Sunday: Flurries (5cm), Sunny periods in the PM. Low -7*C, High -6*C. Strong W wind.
Snowpack Summary
15cm at publishing time, with up to 45cm of fresh storm snow forecast by Friday evening. The new snow, with warming temps and strong gusty wind, will build fresh slabs quickly over the cold snow below. The Dec 1 crust (now buried 90-150cm), has not been reactive lately despite having faceted snow above and below it (especially in shallow areas).
Avalanche Summary
Moderate snowfall, warming temps and strong winds are expected to produce natural avalanche activity overnight and through out the day Friday.
No new avalanches were observed (visibility was poor) or detected on Thursday.
Confidence
Problems
Storm Slabs
The new storm snow overlies a previous cold and facetted upper snowpack. Expect avalanche activity to peak on Friday.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
Expect loose snow avalanches in steep sheltered terrain. With lots of unsettled snow in the upper snowpack these could entrain significant mass.
- Use safe ski cutting techniques to enter your line.
- Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 7th, 2022 4:00PM
