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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2022–Jan 19th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Wet snow, rain and warm temperatures have kept cornices heavy and fragile. Take care on and under ridge lines.

 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure over the BC interior will weaken on Wednesday morning as a Pacific frontal system pushes eastward spreading snow to the coastal ranges.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy, no precipitation, 5-15 km/h southwesterly winds, low treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level at 1300 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries starting in the afternoon, accumulation 5-10 cm, 10-20 km/h southerly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level at 1300 m.

THURSDAY: Snow, accumulation 25-30 cm, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level going down to 1000 m.

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation, 20-40 km/h northwesterly winds, high treeline temperature +3 C with freezing level at 2300 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days.

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m, forming a surface crust as temperatures cool the wet snow. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Wet snow, rain and warm temperatures over the last days have kept cornices heavy and fragile - take care on and under ridge lines.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3