Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The dominating Arctic high slides south allowing a series of Pacific frontal systems to cross the Interior through the forecast period. Strong ridgetop winds will crank up Saturday accompanied by new snow and slightly warmer temperatures Sunday and onward.Saturday: Alpine temperatures -17, ridgetop winds from the West 30-60 km/hr later in the day.Sunday: Cloudy, alpine temperatures -11, ridgetop winds SW 20-40 km/h, snow 5-15 cm.Monday: Cloudy, alpine temperatures -10, ridgetop winds SW 40-70 km/h, snow 15-25 cm.

Recent avalanche activity includes cornice failures up to size 1.5, not triggering slabs from slopes below and size 1 skier controlled slab and loose dry avalanches from isolated terrain features. Natural avalanche activity has been isolated to wind slabs up to size 1.5 and sluffing from steep or extreme terrain. With increased winds over the weekend, the avalanche danger will rise with new wind slab problems being the primary concern.

Due to cold and clear conditions a variety of surface snow exists from faceted (sugary) crystals to surface hoar crystals up to 8 mm in size. Variable wind effect has created wind slabs in isolated areas at upper elevations. Watch for a recently buried layer of surface hoar down 30-40cm that may develop a poor bonding layer. The depth of the mid-November crust is also variable across the region. Reports have the crust down between 100-200 cm and snowpack tests have produced a variety of results from moderate and sudden to hard and resistant, and in some cases no result. If you dig down to the crust, watch for facets developing above and/or below. This may provide a weak layer above a smooth sliding surface in the future.