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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 21st, 2014–Dec 22nd, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Conditions have shifted towards a period of more conservative decision making in the backcountry. The latest surface hoar layer to be buried is the largest yet and will be most reactive as the slab overtop continues to build strength.

Weather Forecast

Snow easing off this morning, flurries forecast for the rest of the day with mild temperatures and mountain top winds northwest 30-50km/h. Unsettled conditions will persist with light snow as a weak ridge of high pressure slowly builds until a Pacific system arrives Tuesday night.

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of recent snow has buried large surface hoar which sits on a rain crust to 2100m and on settled snow above 2100m. Settlement and winds that have just started to ramp up are likely to make the slab more sensitive higher up. Mid-pack is well settled with Nov 9 crust/facet layer in the bottom 30cm.

Avalanche Summary

A backcountry report of a skier triggered size 1.5 avalanche,10-15m wide, 10-15cm deep, from Balu Pass, northeast aspect, at ~2000m on a convex roll just below the ridge. 6 size 2.0 natural slab avalanches observed yesterday east of the Rogers Pass summit in the highway corridor.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A storm slab is developing, 25 to 30cm thick, at higher elevations and wind-exposed areas. These slabs will bond poorly to the surface hoar layer which it sits on. Avalanches on this layer may run farther than expected and easily entrain snow.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The November crust weaknesses at the bottom of the snowpack are difficult to trigger, but if they fail the consequences will be very high.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3