Avalanche Forecast

Fair

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries and/or freezing drizzle. An above freezing layer (AFL) is likely between 1000 and 2000 m. Winds are strong from the west.Wednesday: Light snow – 5-10 cm. The freezing level returns to 600-800 m. Winds to strong from the west. Thursday: Light to moderate snow – 10 cm. The freezing level is around 1000 m. Winds are strong from the southwest.

On Sunday there was a report of a size 1.5 skier triggered avalanche on a steep unsupported convex roll on a northerly aspect. This event likely released on the late December surface hoar layer approximately 60 cm deep. There are also a few reports of glide releases in steep south facing terrain.

The snow surface has probably changed from facetted snow and/or surface hoar to a dusting of new snow, a rain or freezing rain crust, and new dense wind slabs depending on aspect and elevation. Below this 60-90 cm of storm snow from last week continues to settle and gain strength. However, a weak layer of surface hoar or facetted snow sits at the base of the storm snow and continues to react in snowpack tests and slope tests. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer continues to concern local avalanche professionals. This seems most prevalent near Bear Pass where the snowpack distribution is quite variable. This weakness is unlikely to be triggered by a single person, but it remains possible with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a thin-spot trigger point.