Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Saturday: Warm, dry and mainly sunny in the morning. Freezing level around 2200 m. Light SE winds. A front is due to hit the area late in the day, bringing light to moderate precipitation and rising SW winds.Sunday: Moderate precipitation. Freezing level around 2400 m. Moderate to strong SW winds. Monday: Continued mild temperatures. Light precipitation. Freezing level near 2000 m. Light to moderate SW winds.

Some wind slab and storm slab activity is expected to have occurred following Thursday night's storm, and more activity is anticipated as the next frontal system rolls through this weekend. Spring conditions exist in the region. Exposure to the sun, warm temperatures, and periods of rain are the most likely factors to influence the avalanche danger. If the temperatures go below freezing overnight, strong crusts should develop that are likely to hold the snowpack together. If the sun shines for a few hours, the crusts may break down quickly and moist surface snow avalanches may start running naturally. Continued warming from more sun, rain, or no overnight freeze may cause surface avalanches to step down and trigger deeper wet slab avalanches. Prolonged warming may cause very deep releases on weak layers that were deposited early in the season, or on depth hoar that developed during the winter. It is important to monitor the temperature and the freezing levels as they may change rapidly from day to day.

Recent snow and wind is likely to have formed wind slabs. Solar radiation is expected to weaken recent snow quickly, especially where it sits over a slippery crust. As we transition into spring, the surface layers have a great deal of influence on the snowpack. When there is a solid re-frozen surface crust, travel is fast and easy, and the snowpack is held together by the surface cap. Any deeper persistent weak layers are unlikely to fail until the surface cap breaks down from daytime heating. When there is no crust, any deeper weak layers may fail depending on the amount of heat and the triggering force that is applied. If it cools off and snows, new snow and wind slabs may not bond well to the hard spring crusts.