Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 6th, 2015 9:16AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Looks like the conditions will be downright atrocious through the weekend. With the ongoing deluge it's probably best to continue to avoid avalanche terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

It ain't over yet. Freezing levels are expected to remain around 1900m for the next few days while the precipitation continues. We're expecting another 10 - 20mm of water Friday night accompanied by extreme SW winds. As for the duration of the period; 1 - 5mm on Saturday, 5 - 15mm Saturday Night, and 1 - 5mm Sunday. It doesn't look like it will be dry until Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday we received reports of avalanches running to size 3 both naturally and with explosive control work on all aspects in the northern portion of the region.

Snowpack Summary

The wet warm storm has produced 20 to as much as 60cm of snow above 2200m in the north. The snow is wet below 2000m and saturated below treeline. Moderate to strong winds out of the SW through SE have likely formed deep slabs at upper elevations. In the Southern portion of the region it sounds even wetter with rain falling to ridgetop. All the new snow rests on the early February rain crust, and most of the avalanche activity has been on said crust. I have not heard of anything running below the crust at this point.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs remain touchy and are likely trending towards wet slabs, or at least moist slabs at all elevations. Recent activity has had good propagation and I don't expect that to change through the weekend.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches running on the thick crust may run further than you think.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 6

Loose Wet

As the snowpack continues to get flooded with warm precipitation loose snow avalanches become more likely. While they may be slow moving, they can be quite powerful especially in confined spaces like creek beds and gulley features.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be very cautious with gully features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 7th, 2015 2:00PM