Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 24th, 2013–Nov 25th, 2013

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

This forecast is based on limited observations. If you are out in the field, please feel free to send your observations to [email protected].

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Monday: A break between systems could bring clearing conditions for portions of the region and strong southerly winds. Freezing levels rising to 2300m near the coast with a possible inversion.Tuesday: Another frontal system moves into the region bringing light to moderate precipitation (possibly heavy for coastal areas and Stewart). Winds will be moderate to strong southwest and freezing levels rising to 1500m.Outlook for Wednesday: Moderate precipitation for most of the region (possibly heavy for coastal areas and Stewart). Winds moderate to strong from the west and freezing levels hovering around 800m.

Avalanche Summary

One recent size 3 and one size 2.5 natural slab avalanche was observed in the alpine in the Shames backcountry. Several size 1 natural avalanches were also observed on numerous aspects at treeline and below treeline. These avalanches most likely ran within the recent new snow.

Snowpack Summary

Early season information coming from this region has been limited and significant spatial variability in snow depths likely exists across the region. Observations from the field suggest snow depths of approximately 130cm at treeline and 100cm at valley bottom in the Shames backcountry area.A recent storm has deposited roughly 30cm of new snow at treeline elevations. Associated strong winds and warm temperatures may have created slab conditions in the upper snowpack. Reports from the field suggest this new snow has been reactive to the weight of a rider. Limited observations also suggest the mid to lower snowpack is consolidated but keep in mind the snowpack is young and weaknesses (crusts, surface hoar or facets) may exist.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Lingering wind slabs likely exist in lee terrain features in the alpine and at treeline elevations.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

A possible inversion and a brief clearing trend for parts of the region may cause loose wet avalanches on south facing terrain. If the sun does make an appearance, avoid sun exposed slopes as temperatures rise at upper elevations.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2