Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2014 8:15AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Inland.

Check out the latest blog post on deep persistent slab problems.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Sunday: Becoming cloudy overnight with continued warm air at higher elevations. Mix of sun and cloud at higher elevations with valley cloud during the day, and alpine temperatures about + 5 C. Light Northerly winds becoming Easterly by evening. Freezing level close to 2500 metres.Monday: Mostly cloudy with some chance of clear periods in the afternoon. Light Southerly winds and continued warm air between 1500-2500 metres elevation.Tuesday: Another day with warm alpine temperatures, a mix of sun and cloud, and light winds. The temperature inversion is expected to break down by the evening as cloud and light precipitation move into the region.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of numerous loose wet avalanches releasing naturally from solar aspects at and above treeline up to size 1.5. Cornices are reported to be sagging and could trigger the persistent weak layers if they fall off during daytime warming.

Snowpack Summary

A report from the Bulkley Valley suggests that it is like a spring snowpack in the alpine. Solar aspects are reported to be wet and becoming isothermal in the top 15-30 cm. There appears to be little or no crust recovery overnight due to the warm air trapped at higher elevations. A new layer of surface hoar is growing in shaded areas on North aspects in the alpine. Basal depth hoar continues to be a concern; warm temperatures should encourage settlement in the long term, but may increase the likelihood of triggering this deeply buried weak layer in the short term.

Problems

Loose Wet

Generally small, slow, and often limited to extreme cliffy terrain; however, these dense avalanches can easily knock you off your feet and take you for a ride.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal facets, buried surface hoar, and glide avalanches are all expected to become more sensitive to triggering with warm temperatures and solar radiation. Although tricky to pinpoint when and where they might occur, the consequences could be severe.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin, rocky or variable snowpack.>Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

4 - 7

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2014 2:00PM