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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 10th, 2017–Feb 11th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Mt Hood.

Strong winds Friday and Friday night will have built fresh wind slab on lee aspects mainly near and above treeline. Watch for new wind slab in the upper portion of the below treeline band. Easterly aspects will be highlighted in the elevation/aspect diagram but watch for firmer wind transported snow on a variety of aspects.

Detailed Forecast

Light to moderate showers Friday night should taper off after midnight with only isolated light snow showers expected on Saturday. The same trend is expected for the moderate to occasionally strong W winds forecast for Friday night with winds easing considerably on Saturday.

Strong winds Friday and Friday night will have built fresh wind slab on lee aspects mainly near and above treeline. Watch for new wind slab in the upper portion of the below treeline band. Easterly aspects will be highlighted in the elevation/aspect diagram but watch for firmer wind transported snow on a variety of aspects.   

Despite the cooling trend, new and shallow storm slab instabilities may be locally sensitive. 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A strong storm cycle Friday 2/3 through Monday 2/6 produced about 3-4 feet on Mt Hood. 

A strong plume of moisture brought light to moderate rain to Mt. Hood Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. About 2 inches of water fell mainly as rain at Mt. Hood from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon with significant snowpack settlement. A strong cold front swept through around 2 pm Thursday followed by bands of light showers in SW flow along with the start of a slow cooling trend.  

Friday was windy with a slow cooling trend during the day. Light showers increased and generally became moderate in the evening. The Mt. Hood Meadows station had received 6 inches of snow through 7 pm Friday.  

Recent Observations

On Thursday, Meadows pro-patrol reported saturated snow down 25 cm but no avalanche activity in the ski area. The upper mountain was not observed due to strong winds and limited visibility. 

By Friday morning Meadows pro-patrol reported widespread loose wet and small wet slab natural activity that had occurred Thursday near and above treeline. One very large wet slab occurred in the God’s Wall path up to size D3, likely releasing sometime Thursday.  Below treeline, a saturated snowpack was still re-freezing and became less supportable at lower elevations.  

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1