Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 31st, 2018 3:06PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Our neighbors are experiencing a large cycle right now. We feel as though we're just a bit behind them for timing. It won't take much for the scales to tip and a natural cycle to start. The waiting game begins...

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

More flurries tonight and tomorrow. Given the pattern, we'll probably get 5cm out them. Winds will ne from the west and range from 25-40km/hr.

Avalanche Summary

-A natural sz2 cornice trigger on Mt. Buller. -A few old (36hr), mid storm sz 1 to 1.5 avalanches. Looked as though loose dry avalanches were the trigger.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow load from the last few days is very apparent. In valley bottom there was widespread whumphing and settling. Some would radiate out for 30-40m and shaking small trees as they went. As one moves up in elevation, the storm snow decreases. Treeline hasn't seen a lot of change and the snowpack appears to have handled the new load OK. No cracking or whumphing, which was a surprise. The alpine has seen a lot of wind and there are widespread slabs on N-E aspects. Forecasters weren't brave enough to venture too close to start zones, but its thought they are stiff enough and touchy enough to be a problem.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh windslabs are widespread after the recent winds and snow. Lots of features are looking loaded and primed for an avalanche cycle.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

This layer is an ominous one. So far it appears to be handling the load well, but we're thinking this is just a delayed reaction to the load. The calm before the storm if you will.

Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Feb 1st, 2018 2:00PM