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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2018–Feb 1st, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Our neighbors are experiencing a large cycle right now. We feel as though we're just a bit behind them for timing. It won't take much for the scales to tip and a natural cycle to start. The waiting game begins...

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

More flurries tonight and tomorrow. Given the pattern, we'll probably get 5cm out them. Winds will ne from the west and range from 25-40km/hr.

Avalanche Summary

-A natural sz2 cornice trigger on Mt. Buller. -A few old (36hr), mid storm sz 1 to 1.5 avalanches. Looked as though loose dry avalanches were the trigger.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow load from the last few days is very apparent. In valley bottom there was widespread whumphing and settling. Some would radiate out for 30-40m and shaking small trees as they went. As one moves up in elevation, the storm snow decreases. Treeline hasn't seen a lot of change and the snowpack appears to have handled the new load OK. No cracking or whumphing, which was a surprise. The alpine has seen a lot of wind and there are widespread slabs on N-E aspects. Forecasters weren't brave enough to venture too close to start zones, but its thought they are stiff enough and touchy enough to be a problem.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh windslabs are widespread after the recent winds and snow. Lots of features are looking loaded and primed for an avalanche cycle.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

This layer is an ominous one. So far it appears to be handling the load well, but we're thinking this is just a delayed reaction to the load. The calm before the storm if you will.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3