Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Rain and warmth have softened the lower elevation snowpack, creating moist surface conditions on all aspects.
If you can safely navigate the valley-bottom slop and get into the Alpine, you may find some dry snow on northerly aspects. Bring your Glopstopper!
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Numerous wet/loose surface avalanches have been observed from steep gullies/slopes on all aspects at and below treeline. From point releases, they have been gathering up a substantial mass and leaving deposits as large as sz 2.5.
As the week continues to warm up, expect these wet/loose avalanches to increase in size and potentially step down to deep layers, possibly even the Nov 17 facets.
Snowpack Summary
Below and at Treeline, rain and clouds are preventing a strong surface crust recovery.
In the Alpine, true N'ly aspects hold dry snow. On solar aspects, a breakable crust overlies a series of buried crusts, which may provide a failure plane for slab avalanches as temps rise.
The Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas, ~20-40cm above the ground.
Weather Summary
Unsettled weather the next few days, with freezing levels rising, then exploding up, by the weekend.
Tonight: cloudy/clear periods, light W wind,1600m FZL
Tues: sun and cloud, Alp high -3*C, light/mod W winds, 2000m FZL
Wed: cloudy, scattered rain/flurries, Alp high 2*C, mod/strong SW winds, 2500m FZL
Terrain and Travel Advice
- The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Lower elevations saw rain overnight, saturating the surface. The snowpack below treeline has lost strength and wet loose avalanches will become likely in steep terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
Up to 60cm of settled snow covers a series of crusts combined with surface hoar/facets in some locations. Loose wet avalanches in motion have the potential to step down to these layers, creating large avalanches.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3