Avalanche Forecast

Moderate -

Cold, dry, arctic air continues to dominate the weather pattern for the foreseeable future.FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, around -25 C in the alpine, potentially strong valley bottom wind event, light to moderate southeast wind in the alpine, trace of snow possible.SATURDAY: Scattered cloud cover at dawn with clouds steadily clearing through the day, freezing level at valley bottom, around -25 C in the alpine, light winds at most elevations, strong east wind at ridgetop, no significant snowfall expected.SUNDAY: Clear skies at dawn with cloud cover increasing throughout the day, freezing level at valley bottom, around -20 C in the alpine, potentially strong valley bottom wind event, light southwest wind in the alpine, no significant snowfall expectedMONDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, around -20 C in the alpine, light variable wind at all elevations, no significant snowfall expected.

On Friday a skier in the "Molars South" zone near Golden accidentally triggered a size 2 avalanche on a southeast facing slope at 2300 m with a crown 40 to 50 cm in depth. The mid January persistent weak layer was likely in play.  This layer continues to be sensitive to human triggers. This layer is sensitive enough to trigger remotely (from a distance). Human triggered avalanches size 1.5 to 2 were also reported on Sunday, Monday and Thursday. This MIN report from Sunday illustrates the potential for humans to remotely trigger the mid January layer.

Approximately 30-60 cm of recent new snow sits on wind slab, surface hoar (feathery crystals), facets (sugary snow) and a crust on sun-exposed slopes. A very notable feature in the snowpack at this time is a persistent weak layer that was buried in mid January, which is now buried 50-90 cm. This layer consists primarily of surface hoar, however there is also a crust associated with it on sun-exposed slopes. This layer has been most reactive at treeline and below.The base of the snowpack has a deep persistent weak layer near the ground. This layer consists of facets over a crust. This weak interface continues to produce large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature, and very difficult to predict. This layer is most likely to be triggered from areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Rocky alpine bowls, ridge crests and rocky outcroppings are some examples of the kind of terrain to be wary of.