Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
Shallow storm and wind slab avalanches are possible by Tuesday afternoon as snowfall rates and transport winds increase later in the day. If storm conditions develop faster than expected, change your travel plans accordingly for the increased hazard. Look for a rapidly increasing avalanche hazard Tuesday night!
Detailed Forecast
An incoming frontal system on Tuesday should largely stall along the coast during the day with periods of rain and snow for Mt. Hood. More moderate precipitation and stronger transport winds and a warming trend should hold off until Tuesday evening.Â
Shallow storm and wind slab avalanches are possible by Tuesday afternoon as snowfall rates and transport winds increase later in the day. North through Southeast aspects should continue to see additional light loading near and especially above treeline Tuesday. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow that can indicate wind slab layers near and below ridges. If storm conditions develop faster than expected, change your travel plans accordingly for the increased hazard.Â
Shallow loose wet avalanches are possible Tuesday mainly below treeline on steeper slopes for areas away from the Passes that see warming or light rainfall and have received new snowfall.
Look for a rapidly increasing avalanche hazard Tuesday night!Â
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Snowpack Discussion
About a week of fair weather was centered around the New Year. This allowed the heavy snow that fell during the strong storm cycle that ended about Christmas to settle and stabilize. By New Years Eve through last weekend moderate to strong east-northeast winds had significantly scoured most of the available surface snow, mainly in the near and above treeline elevation bands.
No avalanches have been reported over the past several days on Mt Hood. Light precipitation with a steady and mild snow levels have accumulated a few inches of snow by Tuesday afternoon near and above treeline, with stronger SW winds above treeline likely forming new wind slab on lee easterly slopes.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1