Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 4th, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
ahanna,
Avalanche Canada
A spicy ?️ persistent slab problem is not showing any signs of letting up. Don't get complacent about considerable danger. Avalanches have been large and human triggering remains likely.
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
Wednesday night: Up to 5 cm new snow. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level valley bottom.
Thursday: Up to 5 cm new snow. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1700 m.
Friday: 5-20 cm new snow. Light southwest wind. Freezing level 1500 m.
Saturday: 5-20 cm new snow. Light northwest wind. Freezing level 500 m.
Avalanche Summary
A natural wind slab cycle was observed Tuesday, size 2-3, with several triggered by cornice falls.
We've been flooded with reports of persistent slab avalanche activity on the February 22 surface hoar since Saturday, with no signs of slowing down as of Tuesday. A deluge of skier triggered and remote triggered avalanches have been reported by nearly every ski operation region wide even as professionals tiptoe around, avoiding suspect terrain features. The problem is touchy but tricky, in many instances, slopes were ski cut with no results, only to have the third or fourth skier in the group accidentally trigger the slab.
Avalanche sizes have increased since the weekend, with most now in the 1.5-2.5 range, with even some remote and cornice triggered size 3s. Observations are from all aspects and elevations, but especially concentrated on north to east aspects around treeline. They are also occurring at unusually high elevations for surface hoar, with several cases of wind slabs stepping down in the alpine.
Snowpack Summary
Light snowfall and strong winds are building reactive wind slabs in the alpine and open areas at treeline.
A weak layer of widespread surface hoar sits 40-70 cm deep. I may sit over a crust on solar aspects. The overlying snow has been cohered into slabs by incremental loading through successive storms, wind and mild temperatures. As slab character and depth increase, so do reactivity and size of avalanches failing on the weak layer. Read more about surface hoar on our forecaster blog!
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
- In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of surface hoar sits 40-70 cm deep. (Read more about surface hoar on our forecaster blog) Human triggering of this layer is likely, and has been observed extensively through the region over the last few days even as professionals seek to actively avoid suspect terrain features (eg. convex rolls). Observations are from all aspects and elevations, but especially concentrated on north to east aspects around treeline.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Incremental snowfall and strong winds are building reactive wind slabs in the alpine and open areas at treeline. A natural wind slab cycle size 2-3 was observed Tuesday. If triggered, windslabs have the potential to trigger deeper weak layers.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 5th, 2020 5:00PM
