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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2020–Feb 29th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Hopefully we will see the forecasted snow tomorrow. 15cm will be plenty to recharge a tired snowpack and make for better skiing. Read the problems section carefully as there are some important details regarding snow rate and underlying surfaces.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Snow is on its way. Tonight we'll see snow starting around midnight. By 8am some forecasts say we'll get as much as 12cm. By mid afternoon we'll see 15cm. Alpine winds will also increase to 60km/hr with valley bottom seeing light winds. In both cases, they'll be out of the SW. Temps will also fall to -10 for the day.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new.

Snowpack Summary

Lots of solar radiation crept through the clouds today. All aspects up to 1900m had moist snow and solar aspects up to 2100m also had moist snow. There may be a crust on steep solar tomorrow. Keep that in mind as the new snow arrives! Other than that we're seeing very little change overall. Windslabs on the top, a well settled mid pack and a loose bottom layer. Cornices are building and may shed a layer with tomorrow's new snow.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Tomorrow will surely see another wind slab form in open areas. Keep in mind this slab may sit on a crust or a dense layer from today's warmth. This bond may be suspect at first.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

There is a small chance the new load will overload the deep layers. We are expecting a significant rapid loading pulse early in the storm. Sparsely treed areas and thin crossloaded terrain are likely areas to cause trouble.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3