Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to field data and reports showing a wide variation in conditions throughout the region.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to build on Sunday bringing cold and dry conditions to the region for the next few days.

Saturday Overnight: Partly cloudy, patchy snow flurries 1-5 cm, moderate SW winds, treeline temperature around -12 °C.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate SW winds, treeline high around -8 °C. 

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, light E winds, treeline high around -12 °C. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, light to moderate SE winds, treeline high around -15 °C. 

On Friday, the North Rockies field team reported shooting cracks and were triggering small slabs with ski cuts near treeline in the Pine Pass area. Explosive control on Wednesday and Thursday produced wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain up to size 2.5. 

On Sunday, the recent storm snow is expected to remain reactive to human triggering, especially in wind affected areas. If the sun is shining on Sunday afternoon, the reactivity of the slab may increase on south facing slopes. While the basal weakness appears to be gaining strength in the region, it still may be reactive to heavy triggers and a smaller storm slab avalanche still has the potential to step down to a deeper layer resulting in a much larger avalanche. 

On Friday and Saturday, up to 20 cm of new snow was reported bringing the weekly storm snow accumulation to 50-70 cm. This new snow came in with strong winds from the southwest which formed highly reactive slabs in wind exposed terrain. Below the past week's storm snow, some surface hoar had been observed in sheltered areas at and below treeline but this appears to be isolated and has not been reactive in recent days. The November 27th rain crust is now buried 40-100cm and extends as high as 1500m elevation. 

The lower snowpack consists of a series of early season crusts. Cold temperatures will have promoted faceting around these crusts. Shallow alpine slopes along the eastern side of the Rockies towards Jasper may have weaker, faceted snow near the ground. 

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 60cm-200cm, with the shallower value mainly on the eastern side of the range. The alpine snowpack ranges from 150cm-200cm. 

• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
• Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.