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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2014–Mar 13th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Olympics.

Watch for further spring snow and avalanche conditions on Thursday. If wet snow becomes deeper than a few inches it is time to head to shallower angled terrain well away from large open slopes.

Detailed Forecast

A refreezing of surface snow on solar aspects is likely in most areas on Wednesday night.

Then partly or mostly sunny weather but with slightly cooler temperatures is expected on Thursday.

But spring sun angles and power are increasing and should re-melt surface to some extent on solar slopes again on Thursday.

This should make further human triggered wet loose avalanches possible mainly on direct solar slopes by the afternoon. Watch for pinwheels and surface wet snow deeper than a few inches.

Cornice releases should remain possible on Thursday. Avoid walking onto or below cornices on or below ridges.

Areas of old wind slab may still be possible on lee slopes above treeline at higher elevations. Watch for signs of older firmer wind transported snow.

Snowpack Discussion

Over the past month two major storm cycles moved across Northwest.

The first two week storm cycle ended February 25th and deposited about 9 feet mostly wet heavy snow at Hurricane and caused avalanches across the region.

The second week long storm cycle wound down last Sunday and produced similar water equivalents as the February cycle.  Water equivalents and snowfall for the the second cycle were about 4 inches and 2 feet at Hurricane. So this was a cycle of wet snow and rain. This produced avalanches again across the region including reports from Holden Village, Stevens Pass, Tumwater Canyon, Alpental and Snoqualmie with pass closures at times.

NWAC observers Tyler and Katie Reid on Friday at Hurricane reported wet and saturated upper snow pack layers but with no positive snow pit test results and numerous wet loose avalanches to size 2. Warming effects had penetrated quite deeply into upper snowpack layers. Here is a video from Tyler and Katy at Hurricane on Friday.

Warm wet weather last weekend caused wet snow conditions and many wet loose avalanches at Hurricane with several cornice collapses as well as reported by NWAC observer Katy Reid on Sunday.

A cycle of night time re-freezing and daytime melting is reported from the Cascades Tuesday and Wednesday with similar conditions expected at Hurricane.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

 

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

 

A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.

Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1