Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Recent deep snow layers will need a little time to stabilize.
Detailed Forecast
The amazing storm cycle of the past 10 days is winding down. Winds should decrease and light snow showers should end on Friday with cool temperatures. But deep avalanche layers will not go away right away.
This weather will start to bring some stabilizing to recent snow layers. The main concerns at Hurricane will be recently formed wind and storm slab layers.
Deep wind slab will be mostly likely on lee slopes at higher elevations. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow. Deep storm slab will be left in the forecast for Friday in case it needs another day to stabilize. Deep storm slab should still be possible on Friday on sheltered aspects from above to below treeline.
Snowpack Discussion
Recent Northwest Weather
An extended mild and dry period occurred the latter half of January generally causing a crust to form in all areas. Very cold weather followed in early February in the Olympics which produced low density snowfall and strong temperature gradients in the upper snowpack that generally caused surface hoar frost and faceting near the crust.
During the past 10 days the Pacific Northwest has been pummeled almost daily by frontal systems producing periods of strong winds and heavy snowfall. The latest storm Wednesday night and Thursday morning has brought another round of heavy snow. The water equivalent at Hurricane over the past 10 days is about 7 inches with snowfall about 5 feet at the NWAC weather station.
Observations for Washington Cascades near and west of the crest
Several avalanche cycles have been seen the past 10 days. West of the crest the January crust has become buried pretty deeply and although some recent avalanches have been big it seems there isn't any confirmed activity down to that layer lately. Forecast attention near and west of the crest will be focused on recent storm layers.
A cold front Tuesday evening caused heavy loading rates at gradually warming temperatures. This caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle that was observed in many areas by Wednesday morning with numerous wind and storm slab avalanches noted from the Mt Baker, Snoqualmie Pass and Crystal Mountain and Crystal Mountain ski areas. Some of the avalanches were up to 3-5 feet deep!
Another front moved past on Wednesday night and Thursday morning causing denser snow at warmer temperatures. Easy ski triggering of storm slabs on Thursday up to about 1-1.5 feet mainly on lee slopes was reported by ski areas including Mt Baker and Alpental.
The mid and base pack at Hurricane should still consist of mostly stable crusts and melt form layers from periods of warm weather earlier this winter.
Keep an eye on your riding partner in the deep snow until the new snow settles and the risk of SIS subsides.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1