Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 16th, 2024 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs.
TH,
Avalanche Canada
While a thicker snowpack may generally be found west of the divide, this is still a thin year compared to most... Keep it simple.
Watch for increasing winds and rising alpine temperatures Saturday that may have the potential to to increase slab development and sensitivity.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A size 2 and 2.5 skier-triggered deep persistent slab in the Cirque Forepeak area occurred Tuesday showing that the deeper layers can still be triggered in thin snowpack areas.
Further to the west of the subregion ... skiers triggered a size 2.5 slab at 3050m on Mt Vaux Thursday while boot-packing. Luckily there were no injuries.
Snowpack Summary
20-25 cm of snow sits over the Feb 3 crust which exists in most locations (except north aspects above 2500m). At lower elevations, this crust is a sign of the stabilization that occurred during the warming event. Where it is thin: consider the snowpack to be largely as it was before the warming. While persistent weak layers remain present in the mid and bottom of the snowpack, they only remain a concern in thin areas / high elevations of this sub-region (ie with a thin Feb 3 crust).
Weather Summary
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through Saturday. Clear skies will bring cold nights (TL temps -20C) and a cool day. Watch for moderate south winds to bring rising temperatures likely setting up a temperature inversion.
As winds shift west, clouds will invade on Sunday bringing the potential for light snowfall into Monday. Temperatures will rise slightly with TL overnight lows near -10C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
- Avoid rock outcroppings, convexities, and anywhere the snowpack is thin and/or variable.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Winds have been light, but wind effect and slab development have been noted at the upper elevations. NE winds were observed to be transporting snow at peak level Thursday. Expect winds to increase to mod as they shift to the south Saturday and a temperature inversion to increase slab sensitivity.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 17th, 2024 4:00PM
