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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2024–Feb 3rd, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Moyie, St. Mary.

The good news...❄️ winter is back! ❄️ The bad news... storm snow may not bond well with the crust.

Dial back your terrain choices as storm snow accumulates this weekend.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche cycles continued throughout this week with rain, warming, and sunshine weakening the upper snowpack.

Moving forward avalanche activity will become more likely as storm snow accumulates.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate over Saturday. This will fall over moist snow at low elevations, or over a crust at higher elevations.

A layer of facets (and small surface hoar in some areas) is buried 30-60 cm deep and a layer of facets on a crust is buried 80-100 cm deep. The cooling trend is expected to strengthen these layers, but we are uncertain how quickly this will happen.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow expected. Light and variable winds. Freezing levels drop to around 1500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 10-20 cm of snow expected over the day. Freezing levels remain around 1500 m. Treeline temperatures around -2 °C. 20-50 km/hr easterly winds.

Sunday

By Sunday morning another 10 cm is possible. Freezing levels reach 1300 m again. Treeline temperatures around -4 °C. Southwest winds, 10-20 km/h.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with flurries possible. Freezing levels reach 1000 m over the day. Treeline temperatures around-2 °C. Southeast winds 20-40 km/h.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Expect reactive conditions as storm slabs build over a crust. Watch for increased reactivity in wind affected areas where slabs will be deeper.

At low elevations, precipitation may fall as wet snow or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The likelihood of avalanches on buried weak layers is decreasing, but we are uncertain how quickly. High-consequence slopes should be approached with caution.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 2.5